Wednesday, November 4, 2009

FOREX-Dollar slips, markets brace for Fed decision

* Dollar slips, retreats from 1-mth high vs FX basket, euro

* Traders brace for Fed, c.bank seen keeping low rate pledge

* U.S. jobs data due in N.Y. trade

(Adds quotes, updates prices, changes dateline prvs TOKYO)

By Naomi Tajitsu

LONDON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The dollar retreated from a one-month high against a currency basket on Wednesday as traders braced for a policy decision from the Federal Reserve, which was seen keeping its promise to keep interest rates low.

Market participants expect the U.S. central bank will hold fast to its commitment to keep the Fed funds rate low for "an extended period", as it has said in past statements, even as the economy shows signs of improving. Rates have been locked near zero for almost a year.

The Fed will announce its decision around 1915 GMT. Analysts said the dollar may face selling pressure if an unchanged statement boosts stocks on the view that U.S. rates will stay low until at least mid-2010, as the market expects.

"The Fed is unlikely to offer any hints into the timing of an exit strategy and eventual rate rises, which may help stocks to rise and consequently boost euro/dollar," said Antje Praefcke, currency strategist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

By 0843 GMT, the dollar index had slipped 0.3 percent to 76.140, pulling away from 76.817 hit on Tuesday, its highest level since early October.

Before the Fed statement, traders awaited U.S. employment reports from the private sector, which are seen as a prelude to crucial non-farm payrolls on Friday.

The ADP national employment figures are expected to show a 190,000 drop in jobs in October, compared with 254,000 lost in September. Such a reading could suggest non-farm payrolls may show the U.S. employment picture is slowly improving after months of weakness.

A reading of the U.S. services sector is also due at 1500 GMT.

The Fed meeting will be followed by policy announcements by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England on Thursday.

Few in the market expect any big changes from the ECB, although speculation has been rising that the BoE may increase its asset-buying programme to keep supporting the ailing British economy.

Disappointing results from several European banks and European Commission estimates of bank losses renewed anxiety over the sector's health on Tuesday, curbing risk appetite and prompting traders to buy the dollar and the yen.

However, stock prices recouped some of those losses in early trade on Wednesday, helping to lift the euro EUR= 0.3 percent on the day. The single European currency pulled back from around $1.4623 hit on Tuesday, its weakest since Oct. 5.

The dollar JPY= rose roughly 0.4 percent to 90.75 yen against a broadly weaker Japanese currency, which gave up gains made on Tuesday versus a range of currencies.

The Australian dollar AUD=D4 rose 0.3 percent to $0.9063, recovering from a fall on the back of an unexpected slide in Australian September retail sales earlier in the day.

The figures had added to doubts that Australia's central bank will raise interest rates in the near term, after lifting them to 3.5 percent earlier this week.

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